the optimum pattern of growing crops in risky conditions (application of target – motad, advanced motad, linear grade 2 planning models). a case study in arsanjan-fars

there are various views about deceision making for the model of growing crops in risky conditions such as: motad model, inome - variance, grade2 planning, inseparable linear planning, and limited extreme risk model, focus-loss model, and target- motad . in this study, target - motad model has been used as the optimum pattern of growing crops in arsanjan. the results have been compared with those of advanced motad, linear planning and grade 2 planning models. the data have been gatherd from agriclture firms and arsanjan jahad cultivation management for the years 1378 – 1384. after the estimation of about 60 optimum models risk of various objectives were determined. using regression analysis, the corre laxion between output and risk was calculated. the results show that there is positive correlation between them. increase in risk causes incrase in product of wheat and tomatoes and decrease in product of corn. jel classification: e12